Leinster v Northampton Prediction, Preview & Odds - Champions Cup

We have a Leinster v Northampton prediction for you plus a breakdown of the betting odds, team news and matchups ahead of their European Champions Cup Semi-Final.

How To Watch Leinster v Northampton

When is Leinster v Northampton

Leinster v Northampton is scheduled for a kick-off time of 5.30 pm on Saturday, May 4th.

TV Channel

In Ireland, this game will be broadcast on RTÉ2 with pre-match coverage from 4.45 pm.

Those in the UK, along with Irish viewers, can also watch the match on TNT Sports 2.

Live Stream

Those in Ireland can stream the game on the RTÉ Player. Those in the UK can stream Leinster v Northampton on Discovery+.

Who are the officiating team?

Referee: Mathieu Raynal (France)

Assistant Referees: Pierre Brousset (France), Luc Ramos (France)

TMO: Thomas Charabas (France)

Where is Leinster v Northampton

Aviva Stadium, Dublin

Leinster v Northampton Odds

Leinster are massive 1/9 favourites to claim a historic victory at Croke Park this Saturday.

Northampton are underdogs in the betting at odds of 11/2. The draw is priced up at 33/1.

Handicap Betting

Leinster: -14 @ 10/11

Northampton +14 @ 10/11

Handicap Draw: -14 @ 18/1

To Qualify Odds

Leinster are 1/10 to qualify for the Champions Cup Final.

Northampton will need to upset the odds of 5/1 if they are to advance from this semi-final.

Team News

Leinster Team News

James Ryan remains ruled out through an arm injury, with Hugo Keenan also a doubt with a hip issue. Gary Ringrose and Jimmy O’Brien are back having been out through injury which means Cullen has a selection headache at centre to pick 2 from Ringrose, Henshaw, Osbourne or Larmour.

Northampton Team News

Northampton are waiting on the availability of in-form winger Ollie Sleightholme ahead of the big game on Saturday who is a major doubt with a suspected concussion. Elsewhere backrow Lewis Ludlam could potentially miss out with a shoulder injury also suffered last weekend.

Leinster v Northampton Weather Forecast

Decent conditions for rugby are expected on Saturday evening, with no rain and a light breeze expected.

Temperature

The temperature is predicted to be roughly 15°C throughout the game.

Wind

There is expected to be a moderate breeze in the region of 7-8 km/h a

Rain

There is expected to be a 0% chance of rain during the game.

Leinster v Northampton Preview

Leinster’s Form

Leinster head into this game following another strong season this season which again puts them very much on the hunt for silverware on all fronts. In the United Rugby Championship with 15/18 of the Rounds played before the Knockout Stage, Leinster leads the Irish Shield with 14 points, 1 clear of Ulster, they’re also 2nd on the overall table on 54 points, 4 behind Glasgow Warriors and 1 ahead of Munster.

Their European Champions’ Cup journey has been similarly successful, with Leinster topping Pool D ahead of Stormers, La Rochelle, Leicester Tigers, Sale Sharks and Stade Francais with a perfect record of 4 wins from 4 matches. Those performances on 19 points, +70 and 17 tries earned them 2nd spot in the Knockout Stage, seeding behind Toulouse on 20 points, +109 and 26 tries.

To reach the Semi-Final, Leinster overcame Leicester 36-22 in the Round of 16 before overcoming La Rochelle in the Quarter-Final. Ahead of this game though Leinster are coming off back-to-back defeats after their second- and third-string players were beaten in South Africa by the Lions and the Stormers. However, with their first string returning, Leinster are big favourites to book a place in the final against the winner of Toulouse vs Harlequins.

Northampton’s Form

Northampton head into this game as the leaders of the 2023-24 Premiership Rugby Table with 54 points following 11 victories and 4 defeats so far this season. That puts them 3 points ahead of Saracens and 4 ahead of Bath with a game in hand over both sides. There are 2 official rounds of fixtures remaining before the playoffs begin on the 1st of June.

They were also dominant in their European Champions Cup Pool with a perfect record of 4 wins from 4 games to finish ahead of Exeter Chiefs, Glasgow Warriors, Munster, Bayonne and Toulon. Their overall record of 18 points, +62 and 18 tries scored put them 3rd in the seeding behind Toulouse and Leinster.

To reach the Semi-Final, Northampton then overcame Munster 24-14 at the Round of 16 stage before they had a dominant 59-22 win over an understrength Bulls side to book their place into the Semi-Final. However last time out Northampton lost to fellow ERC Semi-Finalists Harlequins in a 41-32 thriller.

Leinster Attack v Northampton Defence

Leinster are potent going forward, demonstrated by them being the 2nd top-scorers in the United Rugby Championship with 439 points and 64 tries an average of 29.26 points per game, albeit it’s substantially smaller than Bulls who have 517 points, 68 tries an average of 34.46 points per game.

Leinster scored 123 points in their pool an average of 30.75 points per game, and that has increased in the knockout rounds scoring 36 against Leicester and 40 against La Rochelle. Their top try-scorers so far this season are Dan Sheehan and Rob Russell with 7 tries and Ross Byrne is their top-scorer with 68.

Northampton aren’t known for their watertight defence, despite leading the Premiership Rugby their 369 points conceded an average of 24.6 points per game it’s bettered by 5 teams in the 10-team division. However, they looked slightly better in the ERC conceding 75 points, an average of 18.75 in their pool before conceding 14 against Munster and 22 against the Bulls.

Northampton Attack Leinster Defence

Interestingly, Northampton also aren’t the most potent threat going forward suggesting they’re very effective in their points scored. Their 421 points scored across 15 games is an average of 28.06 per game and is less than Bristol Bears (497), Saracens (471) and Bath (440) albeit those 3 sides have an extra game played.

Across their 4 pool victories, they scored an average of 137 points and an average of 34.25 points per game. That was followed by putting 24 points past Munster and clocking up 59 points against the Bulls. In the Premiership, their top-scorer was Fin Smith with 116 points along with top tournament try-scorer Ollie Sleightholme with 11.

Against Leinster, they’re coming up against not the meanest of defences either conceding 306 points across their 15 United Rugby Championship games an average of 20.4 points per game that is bettered by 3 teams in the competition Glasgow (243), Munster (256) and Stormers (291) but is relatively close to the other sides in the league.

Across their European Pool Games, they conceded only 53 points, an average of 13.25 points per game. That was followed by conceding 22 against Leicester and 13 against La Rochelle,

Leinster v Northampton Rugby Head-To-Head

Leinster and Northampton have played each other 10 times throughout the seasons in this competition with the English outfit only winning once winning 9-18 in the Aviva during the Pool Stage in 2013.

However, the most high-profile match was when they contested the final of this competition back in 2011 when Leinster won 22-33.

Head-To-Head Results Last Five Matches

2020: Leinster won 35-19

2019: Leinster won 50-21

2019: Leinster won 16-43

2019: Leinster won 26-34

2016: Leinster won 60-13

Trends

Leinster have won 9 of their 10 games against Northampton

Key Players

Dan Sheehan – Leinster

The main man for his country (Ireland) and his province (Leinster) is Hooker Dan Sheehan (25) who is interestingly their joint top try-scorer this season with 7. However, it's far more than the try-scoring ability he brings with Sheehan being a strong ball carrier with sharp footwork and a turn of pace reminiscent of a winger.

Ollie Sleightholme – Northampton

Ollie Sleightholme is an injury doubt for the game due to a suspected concussion. However, I passed fit to play it would be a huge boost to the Northampton challenge on Saturday. The prolific winger is the top-scorer in the Premiership this season with 11. He scored 1 in their Quarter-Final against the Bulls and if fit will be a huge threat.

Leinster v Northampton Prediction & Best Bet

Prediction: Leinster 25-12 Northampton

Leinster have fallen at the last hurdle of this competition in the last two successive seasons. However, their confidence-boosting victory over La Rochelle in the Quarter-Final will put them in a strong position mentally to go on and book their place in the final again for a third try at winning the competition.

Northampton may have lost last weekend in the Premiership, but they’ve still had a very strong season despite having a less-than-desirable record against Leinster. That may work in their favour with little pressure on them to win on Saturday especially with the game being held in Croke Park.

Leinster are worthy favourites and should do enough, but I do think it’ll be closer than many people anticipate.

Best Bet: Northampton +14 10/11

*Prices are subject to fluctuation.

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