Democratic Nominee 2028: Newsom, AOC & Best Bets

With Joe Biden out of office and Kamala Harris having fallen short in 2024, the Democratic Party finds itself in a genuine period of reinvention. The question of who leads the charge in 2028 is wide open, and the betting market reflects that uncertainty with a fragmented and competitive field.

There is a clear frontrunner in the shape of the outspoken and high-profile California Governor Gavin Newsom , but at current odds he is far from nailed on. Here is how the top five in the market look right now.

Democrat Odds

Democratic Candidate Odds

Odds are correct at the time of writing, but subject to change.

Favourites For The Democratic Nomination

Gavin Newsom

Gavin Newsom (Governor of California) – Democratic Nomination Favourite

The favourite for the Democratic nomination is Gavin Newsom at odds of 9/4 . Those odds imply he has a roughly 30.8% chance of securing the nomination.

Newsom has spent much of Trump’s second term positioning himself as the most vocal and visible face of the opposition, using the California Governor’s office as a national platform. His media presence, fundraising network, and willingness to take the fight directly to Trump have made him the de facto leader of the party in the absence of any other dominant figure.

The knock on Newsom has always been California itself. Persistent issues around homelessness, cost of living, and crime give his opponents plenty of ammunition, and whether those vulnerabilities can be neutralised on a national stage remains the central question around his candidacy. No formal announcement has been made, but few in political circles doubt he is running and he is currently 7/2 to win the Democratic nomination.

Gavin Newsom

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (US Representative, New York)

According to the latest betting odds, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the second most likely candidate to secure the Democratic nomination at odds of 13/2 , implying an 13.3% chance.

AOC has emerged as the dominant figure of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party and commands a level of grassroots energy and name recognition that no other candidate in the field can match. Bernie Sanders has publicly backed her for a 2028 run, lending further credibility to a potential campaign.

The question for Ocasio-Cortez is whether she can broaden her appeal beyond the progressive base and win over the moderate and swing-state voters the Democrats will need to take back the White House. She would be the first Latina and one of the youngest candidates ever to run for President, and her ability to mobilise younger voters could prove decisive.

Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez

Pete Buttigieg

Jon Ossoff (Senator, Georgia)

Jon Ossoff is priced at around 10/1 to secure the Democratic nomination, implying a 9% chance.

Ossoff has been a fixture of Democratic politics since his dramatic 2021 runoff victory, when he and Raphael Warnock flipped Georgia's Senate seats and handed Democrats the chamber. At 39 he is the youngest sitting senator, and his record of winning in a genuine battleground gives him a credential few rivals can match — though he must first navigate his 2026 Senate re-election.

Polished, disciplined, and increasingly combative toward the administration, Ossoff has caught the eye with a string of fiery speeches hammering corruption and affordability, most notably at an April rally in Augusta . A comfortable re-election win in Georgia this November would only intensify calls for him to run — and despite his insistence that he has no interest in the White House, few in the party are taking that at face value.

Jon Ossoff

Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris (Former Vice President)

Kamala Harris has been given odds of 18/1 to win the Democratic nomination, implying a 5% chance.

Harris remains a presence in the market despite her defeat in 2024, and her decision not to run for California Governor has fuelled speculation that a second tilt at the White House is firmly on her mind. The DNC has shifted staff resources toward her operation, and she confirmed in mid-2026 that she is actively considering a run.

The challenge for Harris is significant. She carries the baggage of a bruising 2024 campaign and will need to convince both the party establishment and the wider electorate that the outcome would be different second time around. Her supporters argue she was dealt an impossible hand in 2024 and that a more conventional campaign from the outset would tell a very different story.

Kamala Harris

*Prices are subject to fluctuation.

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