With Donald Trump constitutionally barred from seeking a third term, the race to carry the Republican flag in 2028 is wide open. The party finds itself in a fascinating position, still riding the wave of Trump’s coalition but searching for the figure who can carry it forward.
The current betting market points to two names well clear of the field, with the sitting Vice President the narrow favourite and his Secretary of State snapping at his heels. Here is how the top five look right now.
Republican Candidate Odds
Candidate | Current Role | Odds | Chance of Success |
|---|---|---|---|
J.D. Vance | Vice President | 7/4 | 36.4% |
Marco Rubio | Secretary of State | 7/4 | 36.4% |
Tucker Carlson | Media Personality | 9/1 | 10% |
Donald Trump Jr | Businessman | 16/1 | 5.9% |
Ivanka Trump | Businesswomen | 16/1 | 5.9% |
Bar | n/a | 22/1 | 4.3% |
Odds are correct at the time of writing, but subject to change.
Favourites For The Republican Nomination
J.D. Vance
J.D. Vance (Vice President) – Republican Nomination Favourite
The joint favourite for the Republican nomination is J.D. Vance at odds of 7/4 . Those odds imply he has a roughly 36.4% chance of securing the nomination.
Vance rode shotgun through Trump’s second term and has positioned himself as the natural heir to the MAGA movement, without carrying quite the same combustible energy that made Trump so divisive.
An Ohio senator before becoming VP , the Yale Law graduate and bestselling author of Hillbilly Elegy has an authentic working-class story that resonates strongly with the Republican base. Still only in his early 40s, he has the most visible platform of anyone in the field. In a March 2026 interview he indicated a roughly 50/50 chance of running in 2028, signalling serious intent, though few expect him to stay on the sidelines.
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)
According to the latest betting odds, Marco Rubio is the other joint favourite for the Republican nomination also available at odds of 9/4 .
Rubio’s remarkable political rehabilitation continues. Written off after his stumbling 2016 primary campaign against Trump , the Florida senator reinvented himself and was rewarded with the Secretary of State role in Trump’s second term.
His foreign policy credentials have only grown since, and a national poll revealed Rubio surging ahead of Vance as the preferred Republican candidate for 2028 among some sections of the party, making this a genuine two-horse race at the top. Cuban-American and the son of working-class immigrants, Rubio carries a compelling personal story and could broaden the Republican tent considerably.
Tucker Carlson
Tucker Carlson (Media Personality)
Tucker Carlson has been given odds of 14/1 to win the Republican nomination, implying a 7% chance.
A genuine wildcard. The former Fox News host turned independent media star commands a fiercely loyal audience and has become one of the most influential voices in conservative America .
Carlson has no political office to his name and has never run for anything, but in a post- Trump Republican Party, conventional credentials matter less than ever. His populist, anti-establishment message and enormous media reach make him a credible disruptor if he chooses to throw his hat in the ring.
Donald Trump Jr.
Donald Trump Jr. (Businessman & Political Operative)
Donald Trump Jr is priced at around 16/1 to win the Republican nomination, implying a 5.9% chance.
The President's eldest son came into the second Trump administration with no formal role and left an outsized fingerprint on it anyway, having championed JD Vance for the vice presidency and emerged as a power broker in MAGA world. He has never held elected office, but in a party reshaped in his father's image, that may matter less than the surname.
Analysts point to his unproven campaign skills and the looming shadow of Vance as the key obstacles he faces. But prediction markets now rate him a better bet than Ron DeSantis , and his grip on the online right is real. If the frontrunners stumble, there is an obvious heir to the dynasty waiting in the wings.
Ivanka Trump
Ivanka Trump (Businesswoman & Former Presidential Adviser)
Ivanka Trump is also priced at 16/1 to win the Republican nomination, implying a 5.9% chance.
The President's daughter was once viewed as the natural torchbearer of the family brand, serving as a senior adviser in the first Trump White House before stepping away from politics entirely in 2022. She sat out the 2024 campaign, retreating to family life in Miami , and has shown little appetite for a return to the arena.
Analysts point to that very absence as both her weakness and her intrigue: she has no political infrastructure, but also none of the scar tissue of recent primary wars. She is still only in her mid-40s, still carries one of the most famous names in American politics, and the markets clearly believe the dynasty has more than one heir. But she would need a dramatic change of heart before her candidacy moves from speculation to reality.
Bet on Politics Odds at BOYLE Sports
*Prices are subject to fluctuation.
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Bill is as passionate about Irish football as they come, with an agonising longing to see his country grace a World Cup stage. A League of Ireland devotee and lifelong Man United fan, he knows better than most what sporting heartbreak feels like, and brings that perspective to the BOYLE Sports Blog. With roots in greyhound racing and a curiosity spanning politics, snooker, WWE and beyond, there is rarely a sporting conversation he cannot add to.
