Wales v Italy Prediction, Preview & Odds - Six Nations

We have a Wales v Italy prediction for you plus a breakdown of the betting odds, team news and matchups ahead of the final round of Six Nations fixtures.

How To Watch Wales v Italy

When is Wales v Italy

2.15 pm, Saturday, March 16 ^th

TV Channel

RTÉ 2, BBC One

Live Stream

In Ireland, the game can be viewed on RTÉ Player. Those in the UK can stream Wales v Italy on BBC iPlayer.

Who are the officiating team?

Referee: Mathieu Raynal (FFR)

Assistant Referees: Chris Busby (IRFU), Morné Ferreira (SARU)

TMO: Joy Neville (IRFU)

Where is Wales v Italy

Principality Stadium, Cardiff

Wales v Italy Odds

Wales are 2/5 favourites to beat Italy for their first win of this year’s Six Nations.

Italy are the 9/4 underdogs to secure an away win over Wales. The draw can be backed at 22/1.

Handicap Betting

Wales: -7 @ EVS

Italy: +7 @ EVS

Handicap Draw: -7 @ 18/1

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Team News

Wales Team News

15-Winnett; 14-Adams, 13-North, 12-Tompkins, 11-Dyer; 10-Costelow, 9-Williams; 1-Thomas, 2-Dee, 3-Lewis, 4-Jenkins (capt), 5-Beard, 6-Mann, 7-Reffell, 8-Wainwright

Replacements: 16-Lloyd, 17-Mathias, 18-O'Connor, 19-Rowlands, 20-Martin, 21-Hardy, 22-Lloyd, 23-Grady.

Italy Team News

15-Pani; 14-Lynagh, 13-Brex, 12-Menoncello, 11-Ioane; 10-Garbisi, 9-Varney; 1-Fischetti, 2-Nicotera, 3-Ferrari, 4-N Cannone, 5-Ruzza, 6-Negri, 7-Lamaro (capt), 8-L Cannone

Replacements : 16-Lucchesi, 17-Spagnolo, 18-Zilocchi, 19-Zambonin, 20-Vintcent, 21-Zuliani, 22-Page-Relo, 23-Marin

Wales v Italy Weather Forecast

Ideal conditions for rugby are expected on Saturday afternoon, with no rain and little wind forecasted.

Temperature

The temperature is predicted to be roughly 11°C throughout the game.

Wind

A gentle breeze is expected with winds in the region at 16-19 km/h.

Rain

There is no rain expected for the game.

Wales v Italy Preview

Wales’ Form

Wales came into this tournament following finishing top spot in Pool C at the last Rugby World Cup with four victories from four matches including an impressive 40-6 win against Australia. However, they were then eliminated at the Quarter-Final stage 17-29 against Argentina.

Wales opened up their Six Nations campaign putting in a spirited second-half performance against Scotland which saw them grab 2 losing bonus points in a 26-27 defeat. Their second game came against England where they lost narrowly on a 16-14 scoreline for which they earned a losing bonus point.

In Round 3 they were hammered 31-7 against a rampant Ireland with their 7 points coming from a penalty try in the 42 ^nd minute and that was followed by a 24-45 defeat against France last weekend.

Italy’s Form

Italy came into this tournament following their Pool A elimination at the RWC, despite opening victories 52-8 against Namibia and 38-17 against Uruguay. They lost 97-17 against New Zealand and 60-7 to France

Italy’s 2024 Six Nations campaign commenced in a spirited fashion (particularly in the first half) against England to earn a losing Bonus Point against England in their 24-27 defeat. Had it not been for a quiet period at the start of the second half, they potentially could have beaten England for the first time. Italy were then quickly brought down to earth when they faced a rotated Irish side in Round Two and were whitewashed 36-0.

It was another Italian heartbreak against France with Italy missing a last-minute penalty to draw 13-13 against France and denying them their first victory against France since their 2013 victory 23-18 in the Stadio Olimpico. However, Italy finally earned themselves the victory their performances deserved last weekend beating Scotland 31-29.

Wales Attack v Italy Defence

Wales has the second lowest Points Total in the tournament with 71 points an average of 17.75 points per match which is marginally more than Italy’s 68 points in the tournament. Wales do have the joint third most tries for Ireland (17) and Scotland (11) with their total of 10 along with France.

Italy have the second-worst defence in the tournament with 105 points conceded an average of 26.25 points per game.

Italy Attack v Wales Defence

The Italians have the weakest attack in the tournament with 68 points scored an average of 17 points per match. Their two highest scorers in the Six Nations Championship are Paolo Garbisi (20) and Tommaso Allan (12).  Their 7 try total is significantly less than anyone in the tournament with England’s total of 9 the next worst.

However, they’re coming up against the worst defence in the Championship with Wales conceding 119 points in total an average of 29.75 points per game.

Wales v Italy Rugby Head-To-Head

All-Time Head-To-Head Record

Italy and Wales have played each other in rugby union since 1994. A total of 32 matches have been played, with Wales winning 28, Italy winning three and one drawn match

Head-To-Head Results Last Five Matches

2023: Wales won 17-29 in Stadio Olimpico

2022: Italy won 21- 22 in the Millenium Stadium

2021: Wales won 7-48 in Stade de Italy

2020: Wales won 38-18 in the Parc y Scarlets,

2020: Wales won 42-0  in Millenium Stadium

Trends

Wales have won the last 20 games between the sides.

Key Players

George North – Wales

A legend of Welsh Rugby following 118 appearances and 235 points since making his debut over a decade ago in 2010 when he was selected for an Autumn Series International game against South Africa on the 11 ^th of November 2010 becoming his country's third youngest player. It looks written in the stars that he bows out with a try on Saturday.

Paolo Garbisi – Italy

Italy’s top tournament scorer is Paolo Garbisi with 20 points, currently plays his club rugby for Montpellier but is set to join Toulon next season.  Last weekend in their victory against Scotland he put in a brilliant performance coming up against one of the game's best Finn Russell in his opposite number and came out trumps. Garbisi impressed with his game management and slotted the match-winning penalty in the 73rd minute

Wales v Italy Prediction & Best Bet

Prediction: Wales 22-12 Italy

Wales are in search of their first victory of the Championship and while they’ve shown bursts of performances they’ve yet to show that they can do it for the full 80.

Italy have been the tournament’s surprise package putting up a decent level of performance at a minimum in all their games except against Ireland where they were rendered scoreless. Last weekend’s victory over Scotland shows they’re capable of a shock but it remains unlikely that they do it in the Millenium Stadium.

Best Bet: George North Anytime Tryscorer @ 17/10

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*Prices subject to fluctuation